The manufacturing transformation is in progress. From 2009 to 2012, China's machinery industry listed companies are undergoing two changes. First, the trend of rising labor costs and low capacity utilization; second, the trend of increased R&D investment. From the perspective of labor cost, in 2012, the labor cost of all listed companies in the machinery industry increased from 7.63% in 2011 to 9.01% in 2012. From the perspective of capacity utilization, if the original value of sales revenue/fixed assets is used as a reference for capacity utilization, we estimate that the overall capacity utilization rate of the machinery industry fell by about 20% in 2012, and the capacity is idle. However, R&D investment has risen sharply. In 2012, the overall R&D expense ratio of listed companies in the machinery industry reached 3.68%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points over 2011. It is the fastest year for the machinery industry in the past four years.
Large e-commerce, large logistics: logistics equipment. The fast-growing logistics industry will significantly develop the rapid development of animal flow equipment. We believe that the forklift industry will benefit from the rapid development of e-commerce and express delivery in the future, especially the new market space for express delivery. We compared the sales growth of forklifts with the growth rate of fixed assets in the logistics industry. We found that the growth rate of fixed assets investment in the logistics industry has certain leading significance for forklift sales. The growth rate of fixed assets investment in the logistics industry in the previous year was more explanatory for the growth rate of forklift sales investment in this year, and it can be used as a good predictive indicator with a coefficient of elasticity of around 1.6. We expect forklift sales growth to increase in the second half of this year, and the annual growth rate is expected to be around 16.5% to 25%. In addition, we expect the forklift industry to continue to grow steadily in 2014. From January to May 2013, the growth rate of China's logistics industry's fixed asset investment increased by 23.7%. We expect that the new fixed assets of the logistics industry will drive the demand for forklifts. In 2014, the growth rate of the forklift industry is expected to be 15% to 25%.
Urbanization: The elevator industry is expected to continue to grow steadily. From the fluctuation of elevator production and sales growth rate and the growth rate of real estate construction area, the construction area of the building has strong explanatory power. At the same time, the growth rate of elevator production and sales is higher than that of building construction area, and the elasticity coefficient is about 1.68. That is to say, for every 1% increase in the growth rate of building construction area, it is expected that the growth rate of elevator production and sales will increase by 1.68%, and the growth rate of domestic elevator demand will increase by 1.31%. From January to May 2013, the national real estate construction area increased by 16% year-on-year. If the growth rate of real estate construction area in the country is 16% in 2013, the growth rate of elevator production and sales in 2013 will be about 18%.
Agricultural water pumps: cross-cycle varieties, farmers' consumer goods. Since the 21st century, global agricultural prices and the divestiture of inflation have increased by nearly 100%. In 2011, global food prices hit a new high since the 1990s. This continued high food price is expected to drive a similar approach to large-scale farmland irrigation investment in the 1970s, driving demand for agricultural pumps worldwide.
The prospect of sewage treatment in towns and villages is broad: driving the development of the sewage pump industry. At present, the level of rural sewage treatment is relatively low, less than 2%, which is much larger than the 80% urban sewage treatment rate. Sewage discharge is being transferred from the city to the countryside. With the construction and development of towns, villages and industrial parks, enterprises with serious pollution such as metallurgy, building materials, papermaking chemicals and food industry have settled in rural areas, and a large amount of sewage is directly discharged into rivers, causing serious pollution. In addition, China is one of the countries with the most serious soil erosion in the world. The annual loss of topsoil is about 5 billion tons, causing a large amount of pesticides and fertilizers to flow into the rivers, rivers, lakes and reservoirs along with the topsoil, and the nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium nutrients that are lost. The elements make 2/3 of the lakes harmed by different levels of eutrophication. We are optimistic about Anhui Heli, Jiangnan Jiajie and New Territories Pump Industry.